A new report published by Frontex, the European Union’s Border Agency, is analyzed by Nikolaj Nielsen in a new posting on the EUobserver website. Nielsen writes that “The number of people trying to get into the EU dropped by around a half in 2012, the EU's border agency said Thursday (18 April). The Warsaw-based Frontex says some 73,000 people were detected in 2012, down from around 114,000 the year before. This was the first time since systematic data collection began in 2008 that annual detections have plunged under 100, 000,” said its annual report.

Nielsen noted that the report showed that “The greatest decrease was noted along the Greek-Turkish land border. The border is a favoured entry point into greater Europe with thousands of migrants wading across the Evros River every week during the first eight months of 2012.” He quotes Pashalis Syritoudis, director of police in Orestiadas near the Turkish border, who told EUobserver in November that around 6,500 migrants passed the border in July 2012. “In August, we had only 1,800. In September, only 71 illegal immigrants, in October only 26, and now there are none,” he said.

“The drop followed the erection of a 10.5 kilometer barbed-wire fence, which closed off a loop where the river bends into Turkey. An additional 1,881 Greek border guards coordinated by Frontex were also deployed with specialised equipment in the Evros border region.”

The impact of the tightening of the border has been that many who want to gain access to the EU have opted “taking the more treacherous sea route through the Aegean Sea. Detections in the Aegean Sea, between Turkey and Greece, increased by 912 percent with the trend starting in September. Reports of bodies washing up on the beaches of the Greek islands began to emerge.”

In the constant game of chess with the border authorities, Nielsen writes that, “Frontex says migrants in Turkey may be waiting for the end of the Greek operation as people smugglers seek alternative routes.

“Although the flow abruptly stopped in August 2012, there are reports of uncertainties related to the sustainability of the efforts and growing evidence that migrants are waiting in Turkey for the end of the operation,” noted the agency.