In a rare public speech, the Director General of MI5, Jonathan Evans, provided a number of insights into potential future threats facing the United Kingdom. Speaking at the inaugural Lord Mayor’s Annual Defence and Security Lecture at Mansion House in the City of London on June 25, the Director General, in a speech entitled, “The Olympics and Beyond,” addressed the forthcoming Olympics, terrorism, cyber security, emerging threats and the Justice and Security Bill currently working its way through Parliament.

While security for the forthcoming Olympics in July remains a central task for MI5, the Director General used the speech to “talk about some of the national security threats we face domestically as we look to the Olympics and beyond.”  In looking to the future, the Director General said: “Those of us who are paid to think about the future from a security perspective tend to conclude that future threats are getting more complex, unpredictable and alarming. After a long career in the Security Service, I have concluded that this is rarely in fact the case. The truth is that the future always looks unpredictable and complex because it has happened yet. “

In citing various “risks that we have to address,” the Director General said, “we do see a changing shape of the threat internationally. Whereas a few years ago 75% of the priority casework addressed by my Service had some sort of Pakistan and/or Afghanistan dimension, thanks to our efforts and those of our international partners that figure has reduced and now stands at less than 50%. We appear to be moving from a period of a deep and focused threat to one where the threat is less monolithic but wider.”

The Director General noted that the instability caused by the Arab Spring has seen “parts of the Arab world once more become a permissive environment for Al Qaida.” From a British standpoint, the Director General said that, “a small number of British would-be jihadis are also making their way to Arab countries to seek training and opportunities for militant activity, as they do in Somalia and Yemen. Some will return to the UK and pose a threat here.” From the standpoint of Iran, Mr. Evans said that “a return to State-sponsored terrorism by Iran or its associates, such as Hezbollah, cannot be ruled out as pressure on the Iranian leadership increases.”

On cyber security the Director General noted that: “The front line in cyber security is as much in business as it is in government. Britain’s National Security Strategy makes it clear that cyber security ranks alongside terrorism as one of the four key security challenges facing the UK.” He went on: “Vulnerabilities in the internet are being exploited aggressively not just by criminals but by states. And the extent of what is going on is astonishing – with industrial-scale processes involving many thousands of people lying behind both State sponsored cyber espionage and organized cybercrime.”