Competing Views on Risk of Flu Outbreak at 2012 Olympics

Wednesday, April 4, 2012

The figures speak for themselves, an estimated 205 nations sending teams, over 10,500 athletes competing, over 10,000 law enforcement personnel on duty supplemented by over 13,000 British armed forces personnel, and an estimated 5.3 million visitors from all corners of the world—all are expected in London from July 27 through August 12, when the United Kingdom hosts the 2012 Olympics.

On April 2, Maplecroft, a London-based risk analysis company, released its pandemic risk index, which rates five countries at the “extreme” level of risk for the pandemic spread of flu. Singapore is ranked first, the United Kingdom second, then South Korea, the Netherlands, and Germany. The study concludes that the “large influx of visitors” for the Olympic Games would raise the “already significant” risk of a pandemic spreading. The study also concluded, however, that the United Kingdom was also one of the top ten countries best situated to deal with and withstand any influenza outbreak.

The Health Protection Agency (HPA), an independent agency established by the British government in 2003, disagreed with the Maplecroft findings. Dr. Brian McCloskey, Regional Director of the Health Protection Agency's London Region, told the BBC that HPA “have done our one review and we don’t believe that there is a risk.” Further, he added, “We have sporting events and music festivals all around England and we had the swine flu pandemic at Glastonbury. We also looked at research from the Vancouver Games—neither produced any significant problems.” Dr. McCloskey also said that the chances of flu spreading during sporting events was quite low, adding “the fact that lots of people are going to London during the Games, doesn’t really change it.”

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The British government’s Department of Health (DoH) said that the country’s National Health Service (NHS) already has contingency plans in place to cover any eventuality.

The January edition of the Lancet Infectious Diseases journal included a series of articles focused on the threats associated with mass gatherings.