The Weekly Homeland Security Newsletter
26 May 2006

International News

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U.S. Pressure Yields Curbs on Iran in Europe (New York Times) “Prodded by the United States with threats of fines and lost business, four of the biggest European banks have started curbing their activities in Iran, even in the absence of a Security Council resolution imposing economic sanctions on Iran for its suspected nuclear weapons program,” reports the New York Times. “Top Treasury and State Department officials have intensified their efforts to limit Iran-related activities of major banks in Europe, the United States and the Middle East in the past six months, invoking antiterrorism and banking laws.… Almost all large European banks have branches or bureaus in the United States, units that are subject to American laws.” [View article]

Iran Asks for Nuclear Talks With U.S. (Washington Post) “Iran has followed President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent letter to President Bush with explicit requests for direct talks on its nuclear program, according to U.S. officials, Iranian analysts and foreign diplomats,” reports the Washington Post. [View article]

Armed Groups Propel Iraq Toward Chaos (New York Times; Yahoo! News; Lebanon Daily Star) “A galaxy of armed groups, each with its own loyalty and agenda,” is “accelerating [Iraq’s] slide into chaos,” reports the New York Times. “… Some of these armed groups, like the Iraqi Army and the Iraqi police, often carry out legitimate missions to combat crime and the insurgency. Others, like members of another Shiite militia, the Mahdi Army, specialize in torture, murder, kidnapping and the settling of scores for political parties.” But “Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said Wednesday that Iraqi forces are capable of taking control of security in all of Iraq within 18 months, but still need more recruits, training and equipment,” according to the Associated Press. “Al-Maliki vowed to use ‘maximum force against terrorism,’” reports the Daily Star. And “Iraq’s neighbors hailed the formation of the new government, with Iran saying it was determined to improve ties with its former enemy.” [View Times article] [View AP article] [View Daily Star article]

Abbas Wants Hamas to Recognize Israel Within 10 Days (Jerusalem Haaretz) “Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas said Thursday that he would hold a national referendum on a document calling for a Palestinian state based on the 1967 borders, should the ruling Hamas party fail to agree to the proposal within 10 days,” reports the Jerusalem Haaretz. “The referendum would ask Palestinians to either accept or reject the five-page paper drafted earlier this month by senior Palestinian militants jailed in Israel. It calls for a Palestinian state in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem, the areas Israel captured in the 1967 Six-Day War.” [View article]

Indonesian Human Bird Flu Cases Worry WHO (CNN) “The World Health Organization says a cluster of bird flu cases in Indonesia may have been caused by human-to-human transmission,” reports CNN. The “outbreak of bird flu that infected at least seven Indonesian family members earlier this month in north Sumatra was not a mutated version of the often deadly H5N1 form of the virus,” but it was the largest cluster of human cases so far. [View article]

Two Iranians Die of Bird Flu (Malaysia Star) “Tests in Iran on the bodies of a brother and sister who died after falling ill with pneumonia-like symptoms showed they had the deadly H5N1 strain of bird flu,” reports Reuters. “… The two—a 41-year-old man and 26-year-old woman—were among five members of the same family who became sick after returning from a trip to the town of Marivan, close to their home in the northwestern city of Kermanshah. The three surviving relatives were in hospital and one of them remained dangerously ill.” [View article]

British Immigration System Is Unfit for Its Purpose, Says Home Secretary (London Guardian) “The home secretary, John Reid, [Tuesday] admitted that the beleaguered immigration directorate was ‘not fit for purpose,’” reports the Guardian. “‘… It is inadequate in terms of its scope, it is inadequate in terms of its information technology, leadership, management systems and processes,’ he told” the home affairs select committee of Parliament. [View article]

Bush Won’t Send Troops to Canadian Border (Vancouver [BC] Sun) “President George W. Bush on Monday reassured Canadians he won’t be deploying troops or building security fences along the Canada-U.S. border, and is seeking ways to ensure [that] new identification requirements are not too ‘restrictive’ for frequent travellers,” reports CanWest News Service. “… Bush’s homeland security adviser, Fran Townsend,” last week said that “the White House was ‘open’ to hearing proposals about extending the National Guard presence to the northern boundary.” [View article]

Al-Qaeda’s Nasar Called for Decentralized War Against the West (Washington Post) Until his capture last October, Mustafa Setmariam Nasar “published thousands of pages of Internet tracts on how small teams of Islamic extremists could wage a decentralized global war against the United States and its allies,” reports the Washington Post. “With the Afghanistan base lost, he argued, radicals would need to shift their approach and work primarily on their own, though sometimes with guidance from roving operatives acting on behalf of the broader movement.… Counterterrorism officials and analysts see Nasar’s theories in action in major terrorist attacks in Casablanca in 2003, Madrid in 2004 and London in 2005.” [View article]

Terror Cell Targeted London Nightclub (London Guardian) “An alleged British terror cell talked of blowing up London’s Ministry of Sound nightclub,” reports the Press Association. “… two members of the alleged cell discussed possible terror targets in the capital and across England.” [View article]

Viet Nam Urges Public Participation in Disaster Prevention (Viet Nam News) “President Tran Duc Luong [on Monday] called on people, cadres and soldiers nationwide to strengthen weather forecast and warning systems to effectively cope with natural disasters,” reports the Viet Nam News. His plea coincided “with the 60th anniversary of flood and storm control and following the recent destruction and loss of life caused by Typhoon Chanchu.” [View article]

EU Blacklists Sri Lankan Separatists as Terrorists (London Times) “The European Union has agreed to blacklist Tamil Tiger separatists as a terrorist group, despite warnings that this could lead to full-blown civil war in Sri Lanka,” reports the London Times. “The move is likely to bring about the restriction of diplomatic contacts with EU governments, a bar on fundraising by the group, a freeze on its assets and the prevention of Tamil Tiger members from travelling to the EU.” [View article]

Spain to Open Talks With Terrorist Group ETA (London Times) Spain’s Prime Minister, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, said “that he would go to Parliament next month to announce the start of talks with” ETA, the Basque “separatist group,” reports the London Times. “ETA announced a permanent ceasefire in March after a 38-year armed campaign that has claimed 817 lives.… ETA had announced ten previous truces, but had always returned to its violent campaign for independence.” The Spanish Parliament granted permission last year for “official talks with ETA if the terrorists showed a clear will to give up the armed struggle.” Spanish security services said in three reports “that ETA had ceased ‘all terrorist activities.’” ETA’s banned political wing, Batasuna, “will be excluded from the talks.” [View article]

Responding to an Influenza Pandemic in the Americas The Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Americas Program and the Pan American Health Organization on Wednesday hosted this conference on the impact of a pandemic and how to prepare. Paula Dobriansky, U.S. Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, and Albert Ramdin, Assistant Secretary General of the Organization of American States, spoke at the conference. Audio recordings are available online. [View conference page]

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National News

Natl. Guard Chief Says Border Protection Won’t Affect Other Duties (DefenseLink) “The National Guard’s support for the border security mission won’t detract from its warfighting and disaster support roles, but will actually sharpen its ability to carry them out, senior defense officials told Congress” Wednesday, reports American Forces Press Service. “‘National Guard combat readiness will not—will not—be degraded,’ Army Lt. Gen. H Steven Blum, chief of the National Guard Bureau, told the House Armed Services Committee.” [View article]

Bills Include Pets in Disaster Plans (Chicago Tribune) “A television image of a little boy losing his dog during Katrina rescue operations was the catalyst for … legislation requiring pets to be considered in future emergency-preparedness plans,” reports the Associated Press. The Pet Evacuation and Transportation Standards Act, which passed the House of Representatives “349-24, requires that state and local preparedness offices take into account pet owners, household pets and service animals when drawing up evacuation plans. Offices that fail to do so would not qualify for grants from the Federal Emergency Management Agency.” A “Zogby International poll that found that 49 percent of adults say they would refuse to evacuate if they couldn’t take their pets.… similar legislation has been introduced” in the Senate. [View article]

Govt. Keeps Info From Defense Lawyers in Terror Cases (USA Today) “Government lawyers are refusing to allow defense attorneys in terrorism-related cases to see court filings on whether warrantless surveillance was used to obtain information against their clients,” reports USA Today. “The legal disputes represent a new obstacle for defense attorneys in terrorism cases as the legality of the National Security Agency’s surveillance programs is challenged in U.S. courtrooms.” [View article]

Bin Laden Says Moussaoui Wasn’t Involved in 9/11 (CNN) “A Web site message purportedly from Osama bin Laden says admitted al Qaeda follower Zacarias Moussaoui had nothing to do with the attacks of September 11, 2001,” reports CNN. “… A U.S. counterterrorism official told CNN that ‘there is no reason to doubt that it is’” bin Laden on the tape. [View article]

Technology Alone Won’t Seal the Border (Christian Science Monitor) “Federal officials have long turned to technology in hopes of boosting a chronically overworked border patrol—often, however, with poor results,” reports the Christian Science Monitor. Agents chase false leads when ground sensors “go off for cattle crossings as much as immigrant crossings … The unmanned aerial vehicle [UAV] sent to the border eventually crashed.” And “Control centers along the border … can’t communicate effectively.” The Secure Border Initiative’s predecessor “was so poorly managed and so behind schedule that the Department of Homeland Security simply scrapped it, according to a February Government Accountability Office report.” Noah Shachtman of DefenseTech.org. says that the UAV “did help agents track illegal border-crossers, increasing their effectiveness. But he adds that in one typical instance, three or four agents had to round up a group of 80 immigrants. ‘What would have been more helpful,’ he says, was six or seven more agents.” [View article] [View GAO report abstract]

Report Warns That RFID Is Not Best for Tracking People (Federal Computer Week) “Radio frequency identification technology in secure travel documents could harm national security and personal privacy, according to a draft report the Homeland Security Department released,” reports Federal Computer Week. The report warned that “without formidable safeguards, RFID technology in identification cards and tokens could allow others to track individuals’ movements, profile their activities, and manipulate identification and other information … RFID will make people more prone to surveillance and less aware that others are tracking them.” [View article]

New Navy Ship Uses World Trade Center Steel (London Times) “The USS New York is being built in New Orleans with 24 tonnes of steel taken from the collapsed World Trade Centre,” reports the London Times. “… Later vessels in its class will include USS Arlington—named after the” location of the Pentagon, “also hit by an airliner on September 11—and USS Somerset, in memory of United Flight 93, which crashed in a field in Somerset County, Pennsylvania.” [View article]

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Federal News

FEMA Pre-Positions Disaster Supplies The Federal Emergency Management Agency is placing lifesaving and life-sustaining equipment and supplies close to potential disaster sites to shorten the response time for delivery of these initial assets. A 20-foot initial response resources 250-person container has a 5-kilowatt generator, folding cots, blankets, pillows, a portable toilet with disposable bags and a privacy tent, a personal hygiene kit, washcloths, a first-aid kit, a CPR mask, a halogen light set, an 80-foot extension cord, a 100-foot extension cord, a fire extinguisher, a Tyvek coverall suit, a cyalume light stick, a 5-gallon gas can, a wheelchair, a home repair toolkit, and a hand truck. Fifteen containers (some of them larger) have been distributed among 10 states. [View press release]

Bush Proposes $500 Million More for Counterterrorism The President’s Budget for the Justice Department in fiscal year 2006 has “over $500 million in new investments for preventing and combating terrorism,” according to Attorney General Alberto Gonzales, testifying before the Senate Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies (Appropriations Committee) on Wednesday. The budget contains “resources to hire 499 Intelligence analysts and 288 new agents for the Counterterrorism Program” and “$90.3 million in directed investment grants” to state and local governments “for counterterrorism and counterintelligence efforts.” [View testimony]

New TSA Regulations Affect Air Cargo Security (Government Executive) The Transportation Security Administration’s Air Cargo Final Rule consolidates 4,000 private industry Known Shipper lists into one central database, requires background checks of 51,000 off-airport freight forwarder employees, and extends the secure areas of airports to include ramps and cargo facilities, requiring full criminal history background checks for 50,000 more cargo aircraft operator employees. TSA will expand its force of air cargo inspectors to implement these measures. However, “House Homeland Security Committee ranking member Rep. Bennie Thompson, D-Miss., cited a Government Accountability Office report issued last October that illustrated problems with the reliability of cargo information …” according to Government Executive. “‘If they cannot get the database right, there will be no real air cargo security,’ Thompson said. He also said the agency has not eliminated ‘dangerous exemptions’ to air cargo screening rules that GAO noted.” [View TSA press release] [View article] [View GAO report]

Nursing Home Evacuations Get Left Out of Emergency Plans Nursing home administrators generally decide whether to evacuate, and if they do, they must arrange transportation (which may be in short supply), and locate receiving facilities to accommodate their residents, according to Cynthia Bascetta, Government Accountability Office Director of Health Care, testifying before the Senate Special Committee on Aging on 18 May. The National Disaster Medical System—the primary federal program for evacuating patients in need of hospital care during disasters—was not designed to move nursing home residents. [View abstract]

U.S. Agriculture Is Vulnerable to Foreign Pests and Disease, Says GAO Despite some positive steps, Customs and Border Protection and the Agricultural Quarantine Inspection program “face management and coordination problems that increase the vulnerability of U.S. agriculture to foreign pests and disease,” according to the Government Accountability Office. [View abstract]

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State and Local News

HHS Works With States to Secure Privacy in Health Info Exchange (Government Health IT) “In an attempt to settle privacy and security concerns associated with health information exchanges, 22 states and territories have signed on to a Department of Health and Human Services program,” reports Government Health IT. “… The biggest hurdles to the formation of health information exchanges are the security of patient data and patients’ privacy expectations. HHS awarded a contract to RTI International to work with health care professionals, patients and other stakeholders in states and territories to devise solutions that address those obstacles.” [View article]

Florida Drill Combines Attack and Hurricane (Miami Herald) “A simulated terrorist attack on Tallahassee and mock Hurricane Zoey hitting near Tampa tested … the ability of the state to move its emergency operation to another location—the National Guard’s Camp Blanding,” reports the Associated Press. “The exercise” held Wednesday and Thursday “was designed to test the ability of emergency managers from all phases of state and federal government to work together to meet the demands of a disaster—outside the comfortable confines of the state’s emergency operation center in Tallahassee.” [View article]

Louisiana Evacuation Test Falters Over Communication (New Orleans Times-Picayune) An evacuation drill in Louisiana Tuesday and Wednesday was partly canceled owing to poor communication regarding a federal trailer park that was to be used in the exercise, reports the Times-Picayune. Tuesday’s activities “focused on sheltering and evacuation activities leading up to a storm” but “officials in East Baton Rouge Parish abandoned their plans to conduct a mock evacuation of the evacuees living at Renaissance Village trailer park in Baker and accused federal officials of failing to provide help that had been promised.” [View article]

Attack or Accident Could Mean Public Danger at 110 NJ Chemical Plants (Philadelphia Inquirer) “New Jersey has 110 facilities that could pose risks, in some cases a catastrophe, to the public in the event of a disaster,” reports the Inquirer, citing a list “compiled by the New Jersey Work Environment Council.” At six of the plants, an accident or attack “would put one million people or more at risk.” [View article]

Flow of People and Trade Conquers Border Between Texas and Mexico (Washington Post) “A string of major Texas cities sits directly on the border, creating what may be the region’s strongest cross-border connections,” reports the Washington Post. “Some worry [that] the new attention to border security could impede business and hurt the international reputation of the United States. ‘Our position has always been that you’re so concerned about illegal immigration that what you’re doing is making it more and more difficult for legal visitors to come here,’ said Steve Ahlenius, president and chief executive of the McAllen [TX] Chamber of Commerce.” [View article]

Texas 211 Network Will Aid Emergency Planning (Federal Computer Week) “Texas has installed a 211 phone service citizens can use to make sure they are evacuated quickly in an emergency,” reports Federal Computer Week. “People who need special assistance evacuating during emergencies can call the Transportation Assistance Registry ahead of time. Local emergency officials will use that information to coordinate evacuations.” The registry’s secure database “includes people’s addresses, medical needs, pet transportation needs and emergency contact information.” [View article]

Man Convicted in NY Subway Bomb Plot (New York Times) “A federal jury in Brooklyn convicted a Pakistani immigrant [Wednesday] in the plot to blow up the Herald Square subway station in 2004,” reports the New York Times. [View article]

Virginia Drill Simulates Madrid Attacks An emergency drill held on 30 April by Virginia Railway Express in conjunction with Fairfax County Fire and Rescue, Fairfax County Police, and units from Arlington, Alexandria, and Prince William, along with other local responders was modeled after the Madrid, Spain, bombings and centered on an improvised explosive device aboard a commuter train. [View article]

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Private-Sector News

3M Sees Radio ID Tags Tracking Goods and People (Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal) “3M Co. CEO George Buckley” says “[that] the track-and-trace [market] segment, which includes hot technology like radio-frequency” identification tags, “‘is absolutely colossal,’” reports the Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal. “‘It is my view that probably within seven years, every single moving asset in the world will be tracked, including you and your children by the way.’” [View article]

State Dept. Bans Lenovo Computers for Classified Work (New York Times) “The State Department, responding to fears that its security might be breached by a secretly placed device or hidden software,” last week “agreed to keep personal computers made by Lenovo of China off its networks that handle classified government messages and documents,” reports the New York Times. “… Last year, the Chinese company completed the purchase of the personal computer business of I.B.M., after the Bush administration concluded a national security review.” [View article]

Contaminated Tower Looms Over Ground Zero (MSNBC) “The vacant 41-story former Deutsche Bank AG building looms above ground zero, contaminated with toxic waste and still holding tiny body parts,” reports the Associated Press. “… The eyesore presents different problems for a business district struggling to coax companies back to office space destroyed by terrorists. The first rebuilt skyscraper near ground zero, 7 World Trade Center, opened Tuesday with less than one-fifth of its space rented.” [View article]

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Please submit events and educational programs by noon Wednesdays for consideration as items in that week’s newsletter.

Education

The Homeland Security Institute lists these education programs as a service to readers who may be interested; it does not endorse them or their courses.

New

SANS Security 401: Security Essentials With Bootcamp (19-24 June; Philadelphia) The SANS Institute and the University of Pennsylvania are sponsoring this introductory course to computing security. Faculty and staff of accredited educational institutions and law enforcement agencies will receive a discount of more than 75%. Registration deadline is 30 May. [View conference website]


Upcoming Events

New Events (After four weeks, new events will be moved to the list below, in chronological order)

U.S. Coast Guard Innovation Expo (26-28 June; Tampa, FL) The theme of this year’s conference is “Preparedness: International, Federal, State, Local and Private Partnerships to Achieve Domain Integration.” The Coast Guard is inviting exhibitors and sponsors. Senior Coast Guard leaders, including many flag officers, will attend. Keynote speakers include Admiral Thad Allen, Coast Guard Commandant; Michael P. Jackson, Deputy Secretary of Homeland Security; and Dr. Julie Gerberding, Director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. [Apply to exhibit]

(5-13 July; Washington, DC) This conference will offer nine days of information security classes, exhibits, and keynote talks on “Networks Under Fire: The SANS Internet Storm Center” and “Network Early Warning Systems.” [View conference website]

Government Conference on Information Sharing and Homeland Security (18-19 July; Washington, DC) This 5th annual conference will bring together more than 400 leaders in the national security community and private sector to address critical topics confronting intelligence, law enforcement, and national security. The conference will focus on the gathering, sharing, and interpreting of information across intelligence, law enforcement, and first responder organizations, as well as the enabling technologies that provide the information backbone. [View conference website]

Technologies for Critical Incident Preparedness Conference & Expo (6-8 September; Atlanta) This 8th annual conference is presented by the National Institute of Justice in association with the Public Safety Technology Center. It will focus on prevention, preparedness, response, and recovery and will highlight the technology and training tools available and being developed for emergency responders to deal with major threats to lives and property; 1,000 attendees and over 150 exhibits are expected. [View conference website]

(19-21 September; Baltimore) This multiple-track conference will feature 2½ days of presentations, seminars, and panel discussions with internationally recognized experts in biometric technologies, system and application developers, IT business strategists, and government and commercial officers; technology seminars and biometric technology exhibits (open during the entire conference); and a special session on research. [View conference website]


Homeland Defense Symposium (2-5 October; Colorado Springs) This fourth annual symposium brings the Defense and Homeland Security departments together with academia, corporate America, and the media. [View conference website]

Environmental Sampling and Detection for Bio-Threat Agents (25-27 October; New York) This second national conference will be a forum for dialog among government, industry, academia, and first responders to address environmental sampling and bio-detection with presentations, discussions, and exhibits to identify gaps and define next steps for sampling and detection. Guest speakers will discuss their vision for environmental sampling and detection and for coordinating and documenting first responder needs. [View conference website]

June

2006 Techno Security Conference (4-7 June; Myrtle Beach, SC)

Homeland Port Security Conference (7 June; New York)

Terrorism Research Symposium (12-13 June; Denver)

Explosives Detection Conference (enter code TSW73414) (12-16 June; Miami)

Air & Port Security Expo Asia (13-14 June; Hong Kong)

6th International Conference on Complex Systems (25-30 June; Quincy, MA)

July

4th TICs and TIMs Symposium (11-13 July; Richmond, VA)

INFORMS Military Applications Society (24-26 July; Mystic, CT)

September

Air & Port Security Expo Europe(13-14 September; Brussels, Belgium)

U.S. Maritime Security Expo (19-20 September; New York)

December

Society for Risk Analysis (3-6 December; Baltimore)

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Calls for Papers

Society for Risk Analysis (3-6 December; Baltimore) Deadline: 1 June.

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Website of the Week

Center for Technology and National Security Policy

The Center for Technology and National Security Policy examines the implications of technological innovation for U.S. national security policy and military planning. It combines scientific and technical assessments with analyses of current strategic and defense policy issues, taking on topics to bridge the gap. The center has produced studies on proliferation and homeland security, military transformation, international science and technology, information technology, life sciences, and social science modeling.


Quote of the Week

Ecoterrorism Is Real

“Indictments are piling up for defendants charged with multiple acts of environmental extremism. The latest involve a 1998 firebombing at a Colorado ski resort. A question lurking behind that $12 million blaze, as well as two defendants charged earlier with the 2001 destruction of the University of Washington’s Center for Urban Horticulture, is does it qualify as terrorism? Sadly, the answer is yes. These criminal acts are wholly intended to intimidate and demoralize people to change their behavior and change public and political policy.”

Seattle Times editorial
23 May


Stats of the Week

CDC Preparedness

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has made progress in preparing for natural and man-made disasters:

  • There were more than 139 Bio-Safety Level 3 Labs in 2005, up from 69 in 2001.
  • The Laboratory Response Network has 150 biological reference labs, at least one in every state, up from 91 participating in 2001 (see “The Laboratory Bioterrorism Response Network” by Lt Col Debra Niemeyer in the Journal of Homeland Security, March 2002).
  • 100% of states and funded cities have detailed public health response plans; this type of planning didn’t exist before 2001.
  • 94% of states and funded cities have exercised their response plan in the past 12 months.
  • 98% of states and funded cities develop after-action reports on real outbreaks to improve future responses.
  • All states have plans for receiving and distributing Strategic National Stockpile assets.
  • 98% of states and funded cities have established Incident Command Structures as recommended in the National Incident Management System and have crisis and risk communication plans.
  • All states and funded cities have round-the-clock capacity to investigate urgent disease reports and activate their emergency response systems.

F CUS
on Iran’s Nuclear Program

“Iran is the biggest, most economically capable country in Southwest Asia,” said George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, testifying before the U.S. House of Representatives Armed Services Committee on February 1, 2006.

“Known as Persia until 1935, Iran became an Islamic republic in 1979 after the ruling monarchy was overthrown and the shah was forced into exile,” according to the CIA World Factbook.

Iran’s nuclear program was “originally started under the Shah of Iran in the 1950s, with the help of the United States,” according to Wikipedia. “… Iran’s current nuclear programme consists of several research sites, a uranium mine, a nuclear reactor, and uranium processing facilities that include a uranium enrichment plant. The Iranian government asserts [that] the programme’s only goal is to develop the capacity for peaceful nuclear power generation.”

(In his book Allah’s Bomb, war correspondent Al Venter asserted that “Iran has been ‘lying fluently from Day One.’”)

“Moscow is building Iran’s first nuclear power reactor, an $800 million project at Bushehr,” reports the Christian Science Monitor.

The United States continues to push for a United Nations “Security Council resolution that would allow economic sanctions or military action to force Iran to suspend its nuclear activities,” according to the Brookings Institution. “Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues to reject European plans for incentives to his country to give up its uranium enrichment program. The International Atomic Energy Agency has found Iran in defiance of the U.N. Security Council deadline to halt uranium enrichment.”

Iran has signed the Biological Weapons Convention, the Chemical Weapons Convention, and the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

A 2005 National Intelligence Estimate “concluded that Iran had an active secret arms program intended to transform the raw material into a nuclear weapon,” reported the New York Times on Dec. 4, 2007. A fall 2007 “estimate declares instead with ‘high confidence’ that the military-run program was shut in 2003, and it concludes with ‘moderate confidence’ that the program remains frozen.” But “Iran is continuing to produce enriched uranium … The new estimate says that the enrichment program could still provide Iran with enough raw material to produce a nuclear weapon sometime by the middle of [the] next decade.”

Furthermore, “Iran—or any other nuclear hopeful—needs increasingly few centrifuges to make uranium 235 increasingly potent,” reported the New York Times on March 8, 2010. “… The reason is that ‘you're moving a lot more material at lower levels of enrichment,' said David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security … At each step, more of the heavy uranium is removed and the remaining material, now with a higher concentration of the lighter isotope, goes through the centrifuge process again.”

The U.S. Intelligence Community repeated its assessment in September 2009, but “‘Iran experts at the [UN] nuclear monitoring agency believe Tehran has the ability to make a nuclear bomb and worked on developing a missile system that can carry an atomic warhead, according to a confidential report” obtained by the Associated Press that same month. Yet the International Atomic Energy Agency immediately said “it had no proof that Iran has or once had a covert atomic bomb program,” according to Reuters.

What about weapons? Iran’s BM-25 missiles purchased from North Korea “have a range of 1,550 miles and are capable of carrying nuclear warheads,” reports the Associated Press, citing the Jerusalem Haaretz. That would “put European countries within firing range, Israel’s military intelligence chief said.” But “experts say that building a nuclear device small and light enough to be carried as a payload for such a distance is extremely tricky business,” notes the Monitor. Iran possesses other ballistic missiles and cruise missiles, according to the Center for Nonproliferation Studies, and “Israel’s Arrow 2 anti-ballistic missile system is capable of intercepting and destroying any Iranian missiles, even were they to carry nuclear warheads, a high-ranking” Israel Defense Forces “officer told The Jerusalem Post.”

“The Bush administration moved to establish a new antimissile site in Europe that would be designed to stop attacks by Iran against the United States and its European allies,” reports the New York Times. “… the Bush administration sought to assure the Russians that the system is not aimed at Moscow.”

In September 2009, the Obama Administration withdrew that plan.

The Iranian naval exercise Noble Prophet in April 2006, which involved firing a ballistic missile, should be interpreted as a warning that Persian Gulf “states can be struck if they allow U.S. forces to use their ports,” according to Norman Friedman, writing in the May issue of U.S. Naval Institute Proceedings. “… The Iranians … claimed that they had just demonstrated a stealthy missile, impossible to shoot down, and capable of attacking several targets with a single shot.… the Russians have pointed out that Iranian capabilities are nothing like what would be needed to create such a weapon.”

What choices does the United States have? “For sanctions on Iran to be effective, they would have to be applied by all important investors and traders with Iran,” said Perkovich. “For that to happen, sanctions must be authorized by the UN Security Council under Chapter VII of the UN Charter, which makes specified sanctions mandatory for all states. For the Security Council to pass mandatory sanctions, Russia and China must be willing not to veto. To have a chance of this, the Iranian ‘case’ must be transferred to the Security Council in the first place.… the two most effective categories of economic sanction would be on foreign investment and exports into Iran. Iran needs both badly.” But “forget about an oil embargo,” Perkovich said. It would drive up domestic oil prices—something that is unacceptable politically.

“While military action could set back Iran’s nuclear programs by several years,” it would have “negative, long-term side effects,” according to the Monitor. “Iran would almost certainly withdraw from the” nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty “and probably move secretly and with full determination to build nuclear weapons.”

“The most we can hope to do right now,” said Perkovich, “is build a coalition with Europe, Russia, China, India, Japan and a few others to create a cost-benefit table that leads reasonable Iranians to see that the best deal is to master nuclear technology in ways that give the rest of the world no cause to think Iran will build nuclear weapons.”

Sources

CIA World Factbook Iran page

Wikipedia, “Nuclear Program of Iran

Wikipedia, “Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Christian Science Monitor, “Iran’s Nuclear Gambit—the Basics

MSNBC AP article, “Israeli Intel Chief: Iran Has Long-Range Missiles

New York Times, “U.S. Is Proposing European Shield for Iran Missiles,” 22 May 2006

George Perkovich, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, “Options Available to the United States to Counter a Nuclear Iran,” testimony before the House Armed Services Committee, 1 February 2006

Jerusalem Post, “Arrow Can Block ‘Any Iranian Missile,’3 March 2006

Brookings Institution, “Iran’s Defiance

New York Times, “U.S. Finds Iran Halted Its Nuclear Arms Effort in 2003,” Dec. 4, 2007.

William J. Broad, “For Iran, Enriching Uranium Only Gets Easier,” New York Times, March 8, 2010.

Mark Hosenball, “Intelligence Agencies Say No New Nukes in Iran,” Newsweek, Sep. 16, 2009.

US to Scrap Part of Missile Shield,” Channel 4 (UK) News, Sep. 17, 2009.

George Jahn, Associated Press, “AP NewsBreak: Nuke Agency Says Iran Can Make Bomb,” Washington Post, Sep. 17, 2009.

Reuters, “IAEA Denies Report It Is Sure Iran Seeking Atom Bomb,” Washington Post, Sep. 17, 2009.


The Wire: The top stories from the Associated Press

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