HOMELAND SECURITY STUDIES AND ANALYSIS INSTITUTE Report Abstracts

HOMELAND SECURITY STUDIES AND ANALYSIS INSTITUTE
Analytic Services Inc.
2900 S. Quincy St.
Arlington, VA 22206

Telephone (703) 416-4745

2010

A Notional Suspicious Activity Reporting Implementation Strategy for the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, April 2010. This report describes the state of the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Report Initiative and examines its accomplishments and limitations to date. It also provides a series of findings and recommendations intended to further enhance DHS’s growing role in the initiative and to facilitate alignment of its internal practices and technology.

Federal Emergency Management Agency Workforce Baseline Assessment, March 2010. FEMA requested that the Institute provide a baseline assessment of its federal workforce to help it develop a capabilities-driven workforce planning effort [that] is designed to create the FEMA of the 21st century and beyond. This study characterizes the FEMA federal workforce in its “as is” state in both normal day-to-day operations and when responding to an actual disaster. The baseline helps FEMA identify the gap between where it currently is as an organization and where it wants to be in the future.

2009

Community Perceptions of Technology: Standoff Imaging, November 2009. In response to a request from DHS S&T, the Institute develops a process to improve the likelihood of the public’s acceptance of critical technologies designed to enhance homeland security. This report provides recommendations for the development and deployment of standoff imaging technology to detect improvised explosives in crowds.

Concept Development: Community-Based Countering Radicalization Initiatives in the United Kingdom, October 2009. The Institute gains insights into the United Kingdom’s use of community partnerships to prevent terrorism. This paper provides examples of approaches and lessons learned in the U.K. that could inform domestic efforts to implement initiatives and partnerships specifically aimed at countering violent extremism and radicalization.

Concept Development: Developing an Approach to Assess Tactical Deterrence, September 2009. Along with identifying and analyzing concepts relevant to understanding tactical deterrence in the homeland security context, the Institute in this paper includes a general analysis of terrorist attacks on transportation systems in recent years and examines some of the security measures that the United States has developed or deployed to defend against and deter terrorist threats to the transportation sector.

Concept Development: A Notional Technology Readiness Assessment Process for Homeland Security Technology Assessment and Acquisition, September 2009. The Institute describes an acquisition framework and methodology to help guide DHS in performing a technology readiness assessment process that will help decision makers determine when a technology is sufficiently mature to advance to the next stage of development, manufacture, or deployment.

Concept Development: From Web 2.0 to AWW [America’s Waterway Watch] 2.0 Citizen Participation in Maritime Domain Awareness, August 2009. DHS uses this briefing prepared by the Institute to launch a Coast Guard workshop to adopt rapidly emerging commercial Internet technologies and applications, known colloquially as Web 2.0 (for example, wireless fixed and mobile computer-communication devices, laptop computers, smart phone mobile devices, and many Internet applications for communication and social interaction (Twitter, Facebook, etc.) for maritime domain awareness purposes.

The Internet as Terrorist Tool for Recruitment & Radicalization of Youth, April 2009. The Institute produces a white paper on how the Internet is increasingly becoming a tool for the recruitment and radicalization of young people. The paper discusses Internet usage among young people around the world; how the Internet is being used as a tool by terrorist organizations to indoctrinate, recruit, and train young people; and efforts under way to counter online radicalization. Recommendations are provided to further counteract this disturbing trend based on lessons learned from private-sector marketing experts who have significant influence with the youth market.

Recruitment and Radicalization of School-Aged Youth by International Terrorist Groups, April 2009. Responding to a request from the U.S. Department of Education, the Institute provides some insight into how school-aged youth are recruited, radicalized, and utilized by various international terrorist groups. The study also addresses the role, if any, that is currently being played by schools, educators, and others within the school setting to advance measures or take actions that denounce violence and terrorist groups.

2008

Business Case Analysis of Alternatives for an Intelligence Lessons Learned Capability for the DHS Intelligence Enterprise, February 2008. In considering ways to strengthen the DHS Intelligence Enterprise, the Office of Intelligence and Analysis asks the Institute to conduct a business case analysis of alternative approaches for establishing a lessons-learned capability. The analysis compares the potential benefits of each approach along with their limitations, estimated costs, and project staffing needs. The report includes several major findings and recommendations.

Independent Review of the Department of Homeland Security Domestic Nuclear Detection Office–Advanced Spectroscopic Portal, February 2008. The Institute chaired an independent review team that was asked to inform a decision as to whether DHS could certify to Congress that deployment of the Advanced Spectroscopic Portal system would achieve a significant increase in operational effectiveness over first-generation radioactive isotope detection and identification devices. The report addressed two requirements. The first was to assess the testing approach, from contractor testing through operational testing, processes employed, specifications, test procedures, and analysis methods. The second requirement was to evaluate the probability of success of detecting and identifying radiation and nuclear threats and assess the performance of the ASP compared to first-generation systems.

Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA)–Based Framework for Proposal Selection and Funding Strategies, February 2008. The DHS Office of Standards requests that the Institute conduct a study of, propose a methodology for, and create a tool to enhance the investment-making process for selecting, planning, and managing standards development. The Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis framework and tool leverage the strategic objectives of DHS and its S&T Directorate’s focus areas to organize and align standards development program areas.

Utility and Integration of Cargo Advanced Automated Radiography System in the Global Nuclear Detection Architecture, February 2008. The Institute provides a white paper that examines public sources of information on advanced radiographic systems and the suitability of those systems for deployment to address the threat of nuclear smuggling in cargo, with emphasis on the DHS Domestic Nuclear Detection Office’s Cargo Advanced Automated Radiography System program.

Evaluations of Alternatives and Performance Measurements, January 2008. HSI presents a framework for developing operationally meaningful performance measures to evaluate the effectiveness of DHS S&T’s identified possible solutions to known homeland security deficiencies. The institute also demonstrates the framework’s universal applicability and utility by applying it to the cargo security domain.

Standards Integration, January 2008. The Institute provides quarterly reports to the DHS S&T Office of Standards on the progress it has made in helping the Office accomplish its goal of identifying, fostering the development of, and adopting standards pertinent to homeland security. One focus of this report is in the area of standards subject area working groups. For future standards efforts, the Institute contacted and facilitated a meeting between the leader of the Sensor Standards Harmonization Working Group and the staff of the Secure Border Initiative Office of Customs and Border Protection as the sensor working group addresses issues that will impact Secure Border Initiative interests. The Institute also arranged and participated in a similar meeting between the Acting Director of the Container Security Initiative Office of Customs and Border Protection and the Director of the S&T Office of Standards.

2007

National Capital Region Biodetection Notification—Final Report, December 2007. HSI identifies processes that will optimize the efficiency and effectiveness of information flow from National Capital Region biodetection system operators to regional decision makers. The institute uses a systems analysis approach that leverages the most useful aspects of traditional systems engineering tools and methodologies and soft systems methodologies. The institute’s detailed analysis of the requirements for a National Capital Region notification system and the role and needs of various stakeholders produces dozens of findings and recommendations for the development of an effective and efficient system that is consistent with the National Response Plan.

Report of the DHS National Small Vessel Security Summit, October 2007. This report summarizes the proceedings of the National Small Vessel Security Summit held June 19-20, 2007; defines the nature of the small vessel threat; describes the scenario development process; summarizes stakeholder feedback; and provides recommendations for DHS policy makers to better secure the U.S. maritime domain from terrorist attacks.

Analysis of DHS/Office of Intelligence & Analysis Products and Processes, July 2007. The Institute provides the DHS Office of Intelligence and Analysis (I&A) with a three-phase assessment of its strategic intelligence production process and recommendations for improvement. In the first phase, the Institute interviews I&A analysts to gain an understanding of process flows, constraints, bottlenecks, and areas for improvement. Best-practice interviews are conducted with production management divisions of other intelligence organizations to develop recommendations that would apply to I&A. In the second phase, the Institute analyzes I&A’s dissemination process to assess whether I&A is reaching the intended customers. The final phase involves a product evaluation survey and analysis of I&A’s raw intelligence products to assess how well customer needs are being met.

Underlying Reasons for Success and Failure of Terrorist Attacks: Selected Case Studies, June 2007. In HSI’s latest addition to a series of studies that are identifying particular factors that influence the success or failure of terrorist plots, the institute focuses on attacks since the mid-1990s against targets in the United States and abroad. This study looks at two target categories: passenger rail and commercial aviation. Eight case studies are analyzed using methodology developed in earlier versions of this study series. Key findings and policy implications are provided.

Comprehensive Integrated Product Team Capability Gap Analysis, May 2007. HSI is asked to ensure that DHS S&T’s Integrated Product Teams have well-defined, consistent capability gaps that cover the entire homeland security mission space. The capability gaps are the backbone of DHS S&T’s entire program assessment process as they represent the needs of the customers. The institute also provides DHS S&T with a strategic review of the gaps to ensure that they cover requirements set forth in key homeland security planning documents.

Department of Homeland Security Agro-security Science and Technology Program—Plum Island and Beyond, April 2007. HSI provides with DHS S&T analysis and advice for transitioning the Plum Island Animal Disease Center to the National Bio- and Agro-Defense Facility. The Institute provides many key findings and recommendations for planning operations and enhancing the agro-security objectives over the next 5 to 10 years.

Integrated Consortium of Laboratory Networks, April 2007. The Integrated Consortium of Laboratory Networks Capabilities Assessment report provides a quantification of the capabilities and capacities of the five member networks of the network against nine homeland security scenarios for its Network Coordinating Group. This self-assessment of the networks will help the Network Coordinating Group identify and prioritize shortfalls in the network’s capabilities and capacities for the future development of the network consortium.

Risk Assessment Process for Informed Decision-making (RAPID), Interim Annotated Brief on “Activities” Milestone 1, April 2007. HSI uses an annotated briefing to update DHS S&T on RAPID, a methodology designed to enable top-level risk-informed resource decisions. The institute defines the concept of “activities” and its role as a central analytic element of the RAPID construct, discusses the issue of “event families,” presents a group of such families, and develops a group of activities formed by the intersection of event families and homeland security mission areas.

Homeland Security Strategic Planning: Mission Area Analysis, March 2007. HSI documents the homeland security mission area analysis for DHS. The analysis provides a logical structure for analyzing and measuring the National Strategy for Homeland Security derived mission outcomes. The mission area analysis hierarchy includes five levels: Goals, Missions, Objectives, Functions, and function-specific Tasks. HSI recommends the mission area analysis elements be prioritized and that their framework guide DHS’s analysis of homeland security operational capabilities, needs, and gaps.

Sensor Standards and the Capstone Integrated Product Team (IPT) Process, March 2007. HSI assists the DHS Office of Standards in identifying standards for sensors and sensor networks related to homeland security needs. The institute develops a methodology for identifying several types of standards, like specification standards to set parameters to fulfill a needed capability, data format standards to foster interoperability, test and evaluation protocols, and training guidelines for end users.

Guidance on the Participation in Non-Government Standards Bodies, February 2007. HSI provides the DHS Office of Standards with a critical review of the Department of Defense document entitled “DoD Guidance on Participation in the Development and Use of Non-Government Standards” and produces a derivative document to promote the effective use of nongovernmental standards within DHS.

Independent Cost Assessment of the Nationwide Automatic Identification System, January 2007. The Institute analyzes the assumptions, methodology, and data underlying the cost estimate for the USCG’s Nationwide Automatic Identification System (NAIS). The Life Cycle Cost Estimate (LCCE) for the NAIS could not be validated due to insufficient information. HSI provides the USCG specific recommendations for producing a well-documented and defensible LCCE. (FOUO/Pre-decisional, Procurement Sensitive) (Bobby Jackson) (Task 06-84)

2006

Integration of Maritime Security Plans, December 2006. HSI produces a white paper that analyzes the alignment of eight supporting action plans under the National Strategy for Maritime Security and proposes a strategic integrating framework for an effective and efficient maritime security system. Using a systems engineering approach, HSI structures the alignment, integration, and allocation of material and nonmaterial solutions for maritime security. The strategic objectives of the National Strategy for Maritime Security may be fulfilled with five products: Governance, Architecture, ConOps, Risk Management, and an Action Plan. The Institute’s paper concludes with recommendations on how to move integrated maritime security from planning to execution. (FOUO) (Clarke Ansel) (Task 06-52)

National Incident Management System, December 2006. HSI provides the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) National Incident Management System (NIMS) Integration Center metrics for three Federal, 23 State and 17 local compliance requirement activities, which were identified in FY05-06. Each requirement activity is deconstructed into a draft set of metrics and questions that are then presented to a working group of more than 45 Federal, State, and local stakeholders. Stakeholder input is collated into final draft metrics which are then sent to FEMA for sponsor approval and concurrence. Approved metrics will be distributed to the nation’s Governors for use in determining NIMS compliance.

Toward a Dynamic Framework of U.S. Screening Systems and Adversary Countermeasures, December 2006. HSI produces a white paper that presents the dynamic interaction between U.S. screening systems and terrorist countermeasures. The institute provides an initial conceptual framework that can assist U.S. decision makers, system developers, and operators of screening systems in better understanding and combating ever evolving adversary countermeasures. The paper provides a starting point for a future integrative framework that can support risk-based planning.

Radicalization: An Overview and Annotated Bibliography of Open-Source Literature Report, December 2006. This report provides a bibliography of unclassified literature on radicalization. Radicalization is the process by which an individual or group adopts extremist beliefs and behaviors. The bibliography serves as a resource to acquaint intelligence analysts, law enforcement personnel, and researches with the topic of radicalization, to identify and summarize work that has addressed the topic to date, and to illustrate gaps that remain and may require further in-depth study. The Institute identifies and reviews over 250 unclassified sources relating to radicalization. The literature consists of government-sponsored reports, expert testimonies, journal articles, academic research, books, and press reporting. The literature covers a range of topics: definitions, descriptions of international and domestic experiences with radicalization, models and frameworks, and gaps and recommendations. This report was well received by the DHS Radicalization Workgroup, viewed favorably by the leadership within the DHS Office of Policy and Office of Intelligence and Assessment, and used extensively by the Homeland Security Advisory Council to prepare its report on the “Future of Terrorism.”

Community Policing Within Muslim Communities: An Overview and Annotated Bibliography of Open Source Literature Report, December 2006. This report provides a bibliography of unclassified literature on community policing within Muslim communities. The bibliography is intended to inform debate about potential outreach strategies to engage Muslims in the United States. The Institute identifies and reviews over 150 unclassified sources relating to community policing, radicalization, and experiences of Muslims in the United States and Europe. The literature consists of government sponsored reports, expert testimonies, journal articles, academic research, books, and press reporting. The literature covers a range of topics: the effectiveness of community policing, in general, attitudes of U.S. Muslim communities toward outreach, international efforts of policing within Muslim communities, and existing U.S. initiatives of community policing within Muslim communities. This report was well received by the DHS Office of Policy and the Office of Intelligence and Assessment.

Heralding Unheard Voices: The Role of Faith-Based Organizations and Nongovernmental Organizations During Disasters, December 2006. The Institute examines the roles of faith-based organizations (FBOs) and non-government organizations (NGOs) in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita. Data collected via telephone interviews, in person interviews, a survey, and a conference documents the fact FBOs and NGOs make a significant contribution in ten service areas (shelter, food, medical, personal hygiene, transportation, logistics, children, case management, physical reconstruction, and mental health and spiritual support). One of its several recommendations is that the public sector reconsider the appropriate balance between government and non-government responsibilities and between local and higher levels, to provide good, quick, and flexible responses to disasters.

Risk Management Analysis Process (RMAP) Quick Look Analysis, December 2006. HSI provides DHS TSA an independent analysis of Boeing Company’s Risk Management Analysis Process (RMAP) and associated Risk Management Analysis Toolset (RMAT) to understand the objectives and scope of RMAT, determine whether RMAT does or will likely achieve those objectives, and assess the degree to which RMAT constitutes a valid tool for aviation risk reduction assessments. (FOUO) (Jae Han) (Task 06-73)

Organization of an Office of Standards for the Department of Homeland Security: Analysis and Recommendations, November 2006. The Institute recommends DHS establish a formal Office of Standards with adequate staffing within the Science and Technology Directorate. An organizational chart with numbers and types of positions is provided.

Deterring Terrorist Attacks: Analytic Techniques for Modeling Tactical Deterrence Effects of Ferryboat Screening Methods, October 2006. HSI develops for the USCG analytic techniques for quantifying the tactical deterrent effects of screening methods that are currently in use by the nation’s ferryboat operators or that could be implemented in the future. The report focuses on understanding the nature of tactical deterrence from the adversary’s perspective. Strengths and shortcomings of existing deterrence models are reviewed and new approaches offered. A separate classified annex provides additional research and analysis of terrorist operational planning.

Inside the Plot to Destroy U.S. Airliners: A Narrative Account, October 2006. In response to a request from the DHS Office of Policy, HSI produces an independent examination of the terrorist plot, uncovered in August 2006 in the United Kingdom, to destroy U.S. airliners bound for the United States. The purpose of the examination is to research and portray a commonly agreed upon set of facts about the plot, posit essential, foreseeable policy implications, and present the information in a somewhat unique, narrative style for use by policy makers. The DHS Office of Policy regards the paper as an exceptional piece of work that was prepared very quickly and used by many throughout the Department’s senior leadership group.

Homeland Security Risk Assessment, Volume I (Setting) and Volume II (Methods, Techniques, and Tools), June 2006. HSI focuses on the subset of risk analysis known as risk assessment. Volume I provides an overview of the terms and concepts used in the discussion of risk, including risk analysis, risk assessment, and risk management. Risk assessment is discussed in the context of three interrelated tiers, Mission-Based System Definition, System-Based Risk Assessment, and Risk-Informed Decision Making. Volume I also includes a brief discussion of four challenges that confront homeland security risk analysis and motivate the search for emerging approaches. Volume II presents 25 primers on diverse methods, techniques, and tools of risk assessment chosen for their actual or potential use in homeland security analyses. These approaches fall into two groups. Standard approaches are used widely, while emerging approaches are new to homeland security risk assessment. Volume II shows how each approach relates to the elements of system definition, threat, vulnerability, consequence, and risk assessment.

Risk Assessment Standards, Guidelines, and Practices, February 2006. In this report, HSI discusses the practical application of existing and emerging standards for risk assessment to homeland security problems. The objectives are to identify key standards development organizations (SDOs) and risk assessment program models in the form of case studies, and suggest how to integrate the lessons learned from these models into a DHS risk assessment program. The Institute’s review of the risk assessment and management practices employed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, the Department of Justice’s Federal Bureau of Prisons and its National Institute of Corrections, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration provide valuable lessons learned, best practices, and specific recommendations for developing effective, homeland security related, risk assessment procedures.

Regional Collaboration for Developing Homeland Security Capabilities – Joining Operations, Research, and Strategic Planning, January 2006. HSI conducts a workshop at the Colorado Institute of Technology for DHS S&T as part of a three-step process to develop a strategic integration approach that includes strategic prioritization, capabilities-based planning, and risk management and programming. The workshop, attended by about 50 emergency management operators and researchers in Arizona, Colorado, and New Mexico, uses two scenarios (a chlorine tank explosion and an anthrax release) to elicit needs and stresses on integrated emergency response capabilities. The Institute identifies three key findings from the workshop: the most stressed capability across both mass casualty scenarios is responder and public coordination, the coordination stress depends on the space and time scale of the incident, and an integrative clustering of the stressed capabilities occurs naturally. This last finding is supported by data collected on the September 11, 2001 attack and Hurricane Katrina.

2005

Venture Capital Concept Analysis, December 2005. The Institute analyzes the potential applicability of the U.S. Government Venture Capital models in discovering, spurring, and fostering technological innovation to meet homeland security mission needs. HSI reviews 12 existing models, interviews a representative group of 15 authoritative senior staff and substantive expert leaders involved with technology decisions, assesses the relative strengths and weaknesses of alternative U.S. government approaches with respect to DHS needs, identifies 5 policy options, and provides recommendations with supportive rationale.

Guide to Economic Analysis of Homeland Security Policy, Volumes I & II, November 2005. In collaboration with the Center for International Security Policy Research and the Homeland Security Policy Institute at George Washington University, HSI provides a guide to assist homeland security decision makers in deciding when and how they should incorporate economic analysis into policy planning, select the right models, and incorporate modeling outcomes into the design of effective homeland security policies. Volume I covers three main areas of economic analysis: 1) frameworks for analyzing social benefits and costs of a policy, 2) models that have been developed for estimating and simulating the impacts of changes in economic effects, and 3) other statistical techniques used in analyzing policy effects. Volume I then illustrates how economic models are used to analyze homeland security policies and briefly discusses major categories of homeland security policy and the issues involved in analyzing each. Volume II presents three case studies that apply some of the tools and techniques to homeland security policy issues. The case studies include an analysis of the economic effect of decreased illegal migration caused by border control efforts, a benefit-cost analysis of raising the Homeland Security Advisory System threat level in San Francisco, and a benefit-cost analysis of increasing electric transmission capacity.

Wide-Area Biological Restoration Final Report, October 2005. HSI identifies for DHS S&T the information required by the U.S. government for a wide-area biological restoration event. “Wide area” is defined as any area larger than a single building. The biological weapons under consideration include spores, viruses, bacteria, and toxins that could affect humans, animals, or plants. The Institute develops guidelines for an integrative, decision-based approach to the total wide-area biological restoration process from preparation through response to recovery and maintenance. The four-part document addresses decision-making practices for wide-area biological restoration; information gathering for wide-area biological restoration; an information-based, value-focused framework to guide wide-area restoration; and key decisions in wide-area biological restoration. Twenty-three specific recommendations are grouped by each of the four sections. The overarching recommendation is the creation of a National Recovery and Restoration Plan.

High-Level Architecture of Homeland Security, September 2005. HSI creates a systematic architecture for homeland security that enables the strategic integration of all functions conducted by all agencies at all levels. The architecture identifies the relationships between over one thousand functions extracted from a wide variety of policy and planning documents; and outlines a dynamic model of inter-relationships that goes beyond the classification of those functions in HSI’s Homeland Security Strategic Planning: Mission Area Analysis report. The model is designed to learn from real or simulated outcomes of decisions at levels from strategic planning to incident management. This architecture and model directly support the vision of homeland security as risk-based, integrated, and outcome-oriented. The analysis of the key functions also leads to recommendations for research and development of more advanced collaborative risk-decision support techniques.

Underlying Reasons for Successful & Unsuccessful Terrorist Attacks Against the U.S. Homeland & Selected U.S. Interests Abroad, September 2005. HSI provides a chronology of terrorist attacks that have occurred in the United States and overseas involving U.S. interests during the period from 1961 to 2004 and assesses the underlying reasons for success and failure of such attacks. The study, designed to improve the understanding of historical patterns associated with terrorism, includes findings and recommendations for future research. Appendices include descriptions of more than 40 terrorist organizations, chronologies of domestic and overseas attacks, and a CD-ROM database that provides basic information on the dates of the attacks, the terrorist group involved, and the location and target of each attack.

Amber Mist: Chemical Countermeasures Tabletop Exercise Report, June 2005. HSI conducts a tabletop exercise for DHS to examine federal interagency laboratory protocols, capabilities, capacities, coordination, and logistics in response to a terrorist attack using a chemical warfare agent. The exercise reveals and permits the Institute to explore numerous substantive issues related to federal interagency and state laboratory preparedness.

Independent Assessment of DHS’s Strategic Framework for Cargo Security, January 2005. HSI hosts the Homeland Security Cargo Summit on December 16-17, 2004, and presents the DHS draft cargo security strategic framework for review by the nation’s cargo industry. The Institute’s report captures the cargo industry’s comments made during the Summit, provides an independent assessment of the strategic framework, and offers seven detailed recommendations for better securing the nation’s cargo supply while preserving cost-effectiveness and efficiency.

2004

An Assessment of the Transportation Worker Identification Credential (TWIC) Program, June 2004. The TWIC program focuses on physical credential technology and a validation database. Alternative courses of action are limited to the choice of technology and the degree of commonality and centralization. HSI suggests that this relatively narrow focus of alternatives be expanded to consider the larger context of threat countermeasures and security outcomes. The Institute explores some of the associated operational, technical, and program risks and offers four recommendations to address these risks. HSI also identifies larger issues associated with the Investment Review Process and an overall approach to requirements allocation and program synthesis.